Ethanol
Rather than consider the USA, I’ll keep my numbers for CO only.
Gasoline Consumption: 5.7 million gallons per day (2002), in Co, ranked 26th in the nation. 2002 was the latest year I could find on the internet, so for 2006 I’ll estimate off the top of my head an increase of 10% and say we used 6.27 million gallons of gasoline per day for 2006 in CO.
The carmakers are now building and selling E85 cars and trucks. They cost about the same for a comparable gas only machine. The gas only vehicles get from 5% to 10% better gas mileage, but I’m told the E85 vehicles deliver slightly less power for a gallon of fuel at some standard conditions. So I’m going to say the gasoline only machine is 5% more efficient then the E85 machine on a per gallon burned basis.
So 5% more E85 will be needed per day or 6.5835 million gallons per day of E85 for 2006. E85 is 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. For CO, we’ll need 5.595975 million gallons per day of ethanol for 2006.
Now I’ll wave my magic wand and create that ethanol right here in CO and turn all automotive engines into E85 burning engines. I can hear you laughing, I can still hear those laughing before the no alcohol amendment (18th) to the Constitution was passed. But figures lie and liars figure.
One bushel corn will yield 2.8 gallon of ethanol. Consider a plant to produce 50 million gal of ethanol per year will need approximately 18 million bushels of corn. In 2004 USA corn crop average acre yield was 140 bushels or 128500 acres of corn to supply such a plant. That is 200.8 square miles, or 14.2 miles on each side.
Colorado seems to produce 150 million bushels of corn per year. I assume that corn is being used up in the current CO/USA market place. Right now an ethanol plant is being built in Weld County, CO to produce 140 million gal of ethanol from 50 million bushels of corn per year. Supposed to be online in 2007.
We need 5.595975 million gal of ethanol per day here in CO or 2042.530875 million gal per year or 14.6 of these 140 million gal ethanol-producing plants. We will have one such plant in 2007. That leaves 13.6 plants to yet build.
Well what about the corn to feed into these ethanol-producing plants? We got to import those 50 million bushels of corn or up our production 50 million bushels. If a 50 million gallon plant per year requires 200.8 square miles in corn, then we need 8203.1 square miles in corn to supply our 14.5 plants that each produces 140 million gal of ethanol per year. Start at Fort Morgan and draw line due east to the Nebraska line, then straight south to Hwy 40, then go west to Punkin Center on Hwy 94 and then north to Fort Morgan and you got 8203 square miles in corn. Yeah, 90 miles on each side. There is no bullshit in these numbers but others say they are wrong, terribly wrong. You can drink ethanol or smoke pot. But the numbers will change.
Now another gang of analysts steps forward and says – bullshit. You are way too optimistic on your claim gasoline is only 5% more efficient than ethanol. They say one gallon of ethanol equals 2/3 gallon of gasoline and it takes 1/2 gallon of gasoline to make one gallon of ethanol. The first part of that is for the engineers to argue while the second part concerns itself with producing the corn and running the ethanol plant (1 gallon of ethanol = 2/3 gallon of gasoline – ½ gallon gasoline). That says it takes 6 gallon of ethanol to equal one gallon of gasoline. Hoy Cow! If that claim is true, then to get the equivalent of 5.3295 million gallons per day of gasoline in ethanol at a ratio of 6 gallon of ethanol to equal one gallon of gasoline, we need 31.977 million gallons of ethanol per day. That calls for 83.4 of those 140 million gallon per year ethanol plants along with the 16740 square miles of CO planted in corn, that is a square 129.4 miles on a side or 16% of CO. Sorry, I know you want to have cow, but there is no room, all the farm land is in corn.
Internet numbers say a 40 million gallon of ethanol per year plant has a capital cost of $55 million. So my 83.4, 140 million gallon ethanol per year plants will cost $16 billion.
Cost of a gallon of ethanol on 4/25/2006 is $2.75 at pump. However there is $0.51 subsidy to the ethanol plant and $0.18 corn subsidy paid by US A for each gallon of ethanol, but its overtaxed on an energy basis of $0.13 per gallon. So the total coast is $3.31 for one gallon of ethanol, while the price for regular gasoline is $2.94. You can see we are almost at the break-even point with respect to sweet light crude prices versus ethanol for a limited volume.
How about a crop failure? No way, can’t happen here. No more grass (thank God) every lawn in CO is in corn and so are all golf courses.
Rather than consider the USA, I’ll keep my numbers for CO only.
Gasoline Consumption: 5.7 million gallons per day (2002), in Co, ranked 26th in the nation. 2002 was the latest year I could find on the internet, so for 2006 I’ll estimate off the top of my head an increase of 10% and say we used 6.27 million gallons of gasoline per day for 2006 in CO.
The carmakers are now building and selling E85 cars and trucks. They cost about the same for a comparable gas only machine. The gas only vehicles get from 5% to 10% better gas mileage, but I’m told the E85 vehicles deliver slightly less power for a gallon of fuel at some standard conditions. So I’m going to say the gasoline only machine is 5% more efficient then the E85 machine on a per gallon burned basis.
So 5% more E85 will be needed per day or 6.5835 million gallons per day of E85 for 2006. E85 is 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. For CO, we’ll need 5.595975 million gallons per day of ethanol for 2006.
Now I’ll wave my magic wand and create that ethanol right here in CO and turn all automotive engines into E85 burning engines. I can hear you laughing, I can still hear those laughing before the no alcohol amendment (18th) to the Constitution was passed. But figures lie and liars figure.
One bushel corn will yield 2.8 gallon of ethanol. Consider a plant to produce 50 million gal of ethanol per year will need approximately 18 million bushels of corn. In 2004 USA corn crop average acre yield was 140 bushels or 128500 acres of corn to supply such a plant. That is 200.8 square miles, or 14.2 miles on each side.
Colorado seems to produce 150 million bushels of corn per year. I assume that corn is being used up in the current CO/USA market place. Right now an ethanol plant is being built in Weld County, CO to produce 140 million gal of ethanol from 50 million bushels of corn per year. Supposed to be online in 2007.
We need 5.595975 million gal of ethanol per day here in CO or 2042.530875 million gal per year or 14.6 of these 140 million gal ethanol-producing plants. We will have one such plant in 2007. That leaves 13.6 plants to yet build.
Well what about the corn to feed into these ethanol-producing plants? We got to import those 50 million bushels of corn or up our production 50 million bushels. If a 50 million gallon plant per year requires 200.8 square miles in corn, then we need 8203.1 square miles in corn to supply our 14.5 plants that each produces 140 million gal of ethanol per year. Start at Fort Morgan and draw line due east to the Nebraska line, then straight south to Hwy 40, then go west to Punkin Center on Hwy 94 and then north to Fort Morgan and you got 8203 square miles in corn. Yeah, 90 miles on each side. There is no bullshit in these numbers but others say they are wrong, terribly wrong. You can drink ethanol or smoke pot. But the numbers will change.
Now another gang of analysts steps forward and says – bullshit. You are way too optimistic on your claim gasoline is only 5% more efficient than ethanol. They say one gallon of ethanol equals 2/3 gallon of gasoline and it takes 1/2 gallon of gasoline to make one gallon of ethanol. The first part of that is for the engineers to argue while the second part concerns itself with producing the corn and running the ethanol plant (1 gallon of ethanol = 2/3 gallon of gasoline – ½ gallon gasoline). That says it takes 6 gallon of ethanol to equal one gallon of gasoline. Hoy Cow! If that claim is true, then to get the equivalent of 5.3295 million gallons per day of gasoline in ethanol at a ratio of 6 gallon of ethanol to equal one gallon of gasoline, we need 31.977 million gallons of ethanol per day. That calls for 83.4 of those 140 million gallon per year ethanol plants along with the 16740 square miles of CO planted in corn, that is a square 129.4 miles on a side or 16% of CO. Sorry, I know you want to have cow, but there is no room, all the farm land is in corn.
Internet numbers say a 40 million gallon of ethanol per year plant has a capital cost of $55 million. So my 83.4, 140 million gallon ethanol per year plants will cost $16 billion.
Cost of a gallon of ethanol on 4/25/2006 is $2.75 at pump. However there is $0.51 subsidy to the ethanol plant and $0.18 corn subsidy paid by US A for each gallon of ethanol, but its overtaxed on an energy basis of $0.13 per gallon. So the total coast is $3.31 for one gallon of ethanol, while the price for regular gasoline is $2.94. You can see we are almost at the break-even point with respect to sweet light crude prices versus ethanol for a limited volume.
How about a crop failure? No way, can’t happen here. No more grass (thank God) every lawn in CO is in corn and so are all golf courses.
posted by Pat Crotty at 11:16 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home