President Obama

It is right and fitting that Barack Obama won the 2008 presidential election. George W. Bush is the worst president we ever had, and he must be held responsible for bringing the country to ruin. He was aided and abetted all the way by the US Congress. It is now up to President Obama to return this country to living out the high ideals that made us the greatest country in our imperfect world. It is possible; it is on the outer edge of the art of the possible. I’m not optimistic that Obama can do it. If he can keep what is developing into a severe recession from plunging into a depression, he will have merited the building of a monument to commemorate his name and the people who helped him restore America as the world’s champion of freedom and democracy.

The rot set in with Jack Kennedy. He had the promise, he had the possibility, but he let it get away. Camelot was BS. Then Lyndon Johnson snatched the promise of civil rights out of the thin air Martin Luther King created and shoved it down the nation’s throat – Lincoln smiled and danced a back woods jig. But then Vietnam consumed him and the rest of the country for 10 years. Other than Roland Regan having the good sense not to start another war, we have been going down hill and accelerating. It’s not a case of a few bad apples; the whole bushel basket is rotten. We are almost broke. If we do go off the edge into depression, keep in mind the ignorant and dirt poor folks of the 1930’s are not the same crowd who is around today. Today’s society is quite capable of anarchy.

Obama’s first and most important task will be to contain the recession. Congress will have to go along, as what they have provided for the past 20-30 years has failed. They sold out to K-street quite some time ago. But notice what Obama begins to surround himself for advice; the same folks that created the mess to start with. They are mixing the Kool Aid and cranking up the printing presses – why, because they don’t know what else to do. Do you think Washington ever thought it would come down to Valley Forge, or Lincoln thought the bombardment at Fort Sumter would lead to Antietam and Gettysburg - I don’t think so? Maybe Obama should go into the desert to fast and pray until Jan 20 with the hope God will give him a sign or send him a prophet. Surely I jest. Let me assure you I do not jest. Better to have Obama clear of mind and clean of heart to deal with this great national crisis then full of the snakes and spiders of the past. Go to the Sermon on the Mount. All the elements of the test are there. The keys of the kingdom are laid bare. In the next few years you will stumble across one of these keys. Make no mistake, that stumble for you has been no mistake; it has been waiting for you since the beginning of history. Seize it immediately and march into your grave with it fastened to you forever. What does all that have to do with Obama and the mounting great national crisis? Pray God sends Obama men and women who have one of the keys to help him speak truth to power.

A work in progress – from phone logs to Big Brother.

George Orwell’s Nineteen Eight-Four is alive and well. In fact it is the American government’s largest growth business. And you know, at least half of the American people support this totalitarian power grab. It is the dream come true of the master computer database that I’ll call Big Brother (BB). The technology of computer hardware and software is completely in hand and its cost is very reasonable. The various databases that need to be consolidated into BB are readily available. All that remains to be done is for these various databases to be
brought under some central control and then used. Right now the National Security Agency (NSA) seems to be the lead government agency in the George Bush administration to assembly the various databases under BB. Once that is done, and it is a work in progress, with the mere punch of a few computer keystrokes, we have every bit of information ever recorded in your lifetime on a computer monitor screen. Never mind the assurances your government gives you that, that information will never be misused, history teaches that, that is a lie. Surely BB will be used, and it will be used against you. As to misuse, such a notion has no meaning when the rules for use are set in secret and changed in secret. Unless the Congress and the Courts step in to limit the Executive under the Constitution, BB is already a reality.
Stop for a moment and think about the various databases out there with you in them: federal, state, and county tax records; driver, automobile, birth, death, marriage, divorce, court proceedings, prison, school, military service, banks, investment services, property, medical, guns, social security, medicare, medicaid, unemployment, welfare, credit, telephone, e-mail, passport, insurance, bankruptcy records, ad infinitum, etc.
And of course most think they are the proverbial honest man, and therefore have nothing to fear. The real honest man knows better. In those records mentioned above, there is enough rope to hang nine out of ten people living in America, honest or otherwise. As to the majority who seem to approve of President Bush’s NSA actions you got to conclude they are stupid, naive, mentally lazy, consumed with right wing religious notions that they are the elect; and believe George Bush is protecting them from terrorism, but in reality they are surrendering some of their liberty to Nineteen Eight-Four.

Pat's Reality

Ethanol

Rather than consider the USA, I’ll keep my numbers for CO only.

Gasoline Consumption: 5.7 million gallons per day (2002), in Co, ranked 26th in the nation. 2002 was the latest year I could find on the internet, so for 2006 I’ll estimate off the top of my head an increase of 10% and say we used 6.27 million gallons of gasoline per day for 2006 in CO.

The carmakers are now building and selling E85 cars and trucks. They cost about the same for a comparable gas only machine. The gas only vehicles get from 5% to 10% better gas mileage, but I’m told the E85 vehicles deliver slightly less power for a gallon of fuel at some standard conditions. So I’m going to say the gasoline only machine is 5% more efficient then the E85 machine on a per gallon burned basis.

So 5% more E85 will be needed per day or 6.5835 million gallons per day of E85 for 2006. E85 is 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. For CO, we’ll need 5.595975 million gallons per day of ethanol for 2006.

Now I’ll wave my magic wand and create that ethanol right here in CO and turn all automotive engines into E85 burning engines. I can hear you laughing, I can still hear those laughing before the no alcohol amendment (18th) to the Constitution was passed. But figures lie and liars figure.

One bushel corn will yield 2.8 gallon of ethanol. Consider a plant to produce 50 million gal of ethanol per year will need approximately 18 million bushels of corn. In 2004 USA corn crop average acre yield was 140 bushels or 128500 acres of corn to supply such a plant. That is 200.8 square miles, or 14.2 miles on each side.

Colorado seems to produce 150 million bushels of corn per year. I assume that corn is being used up in the current CO/USA market place. Right now an ethanol plant is being built in Weld County, CO to produce 140 million gal of ethanol from 50 million bushels of corn per year. Supposed to be online in 2007.

We need 5.595975 million gal of ethanol per day here in CO or 2042.530875 million gal per year or 14.6 of these 140 million gal ethanol-producing plants. We will have one such plant in 2007. That leaves 13.6 plants to yet build.

Well what about the corn to feed into these ethanol-producing plants? We got to import those 50 million bushels of corn or up our production 50 million bushels. If a 50 million gallon plant per year requires 200.8 square miles in corn, then we need 8203.1 square miles in corn to supply our 14.5 plants that each produces 140 million gal of ethanol per year. Start at Fort Morgan and draw line due east to the Nebraska line, then straight south to Hwy 40, then go west to Punkin Center on Hwy 94 and then north to Fort Morgan and you got 8203 square miles in corn. Yeah, 90 miles on each side. There is no bullshit in these numbers but others say they are wrong, terribly wrong. You can drink ethanol or smoke pot. But the numbers will change.

Now another gang of analysts steps forward and says – bullshit. You are way too optimistic on your claim gasoline is only 5% more efficient than ethanol. They say one gallon of ethanol equals 2/3 gallon of gasoline and it takes 1/2 gallon of gasoline to make one gallon of ethanol. The first part of that is for the engineers to argue while the second part concerns itself with producing the corn and running the ethanol plant (1 gallon of ethanol = 2/3 gallon of gasoline – ½ gallon gasoline). That says it takes 6 gallon of ethanol to equal one gallon of gasoline. Hoy Cow! If that claim is true, then to get the equivalent of 5.3295 million gallons per day of gasoline in ethanol at a ratio of 6 gallon of ethanol to equal one gallon of gasoline, we need 31.977 million gallons of ethanol per day. That calls for 83.4 of those 140 million gallon per year ethanol plants along with the 16740 square miles of CO planted in corn, that is a square 129.4 miles on a side or 16% of CO. Sorry, I know you want to have cow, but there is no room, all the farm land is in corn.

Internet numbers say a 40 million gallon of ethanol per year plant has a capital cost of $55 million. So my 83.4, 140 million gallon ethanol per year plants will cost $16 billion.

Cost of a gallon of ethanol on 4/25/2006 is $2.75 at pump. However there is $0.51 subsidy to the ethanol plant and $0.18 corn subsidy paid by US A for each gallon of ethanol, but its overtaxed on an energy basis of $0.13 per gallon. So the total coast is $3.31 for one gallon of ethanol, while the price for regular gasoline is $2.94. You can see we are almost at the break-even point with respect to sweet light crude prices versus ethanol for a limited volume.

How about a crop failure? No way, can’t happen here. No more grass (thank God) every lawn in CO is in corn and so are all golf courses.

Immigration Issue

Two parts to the problem:
1. The USA-Mexican Boarder.
2. What to do with the illegal immigrates already here.

Lets deal with the boarder: a no-brainer - simple, close the boarder. No entry unless you have a passport and a USA Visa. It can be done. It is legal and it is moral. Yes, it will cost money, and there will be consequences, both known and unintended. But it is well within the art of the possible and I think 75% of Americans would approve of doing that. No USA military, the mission belongs to the Immigration Service.

The illegal immigrates already here. Complex, lots of honest differences of opinion, will cost a lot of money to work out, will create a good size government bureau to carry out, will need extreme corporation between local law enforcement and the courts and this new federal bureau. No secret police, no Gestapo, no KGB or CIA. Everything gets done on the public record. Main points are:
1. If you are here five years or more you can stay and apply for citizenship, less than five years you are deported.
2. If you are born here you can stay and your parents can stay and apply for citizenship.
3. If you become a felon any time before you become a citizen, you will be deported.
4. It is not a felony to be an illegal immigrant and no citizen can be prosecuted for helping an illegal immigrant.
5. If you hire an illegal immigrant who is not in the citizenship program mention above, there will be stiff fines and jail sentences for repeat offenders.
I believe we can deal with the process of citizenship for those who have been here for five years or more and those born here and their parents. After all we have been in that business for over 200 years. The deport business is something we are going to have to learn about as we proceed to carry it out. There is something like 11 million illegal immigrants here. About 4.4 million have been here less than five years. That is a huge number of people to deport in a human way. It will not be pretty (Katrina should provide some insight). It will produce enough guilt that we may give up on it once it is started. There will be unintended consequences. Turkey has yet to own up to the Armenian genocide. No, I’m not saying any such thing as that will happen, but you can bet now many will say 50 years from now that the ‘Great Mexican Deport’ never happened.
Now we got to decide how we will go about determining who has been here five years or more and who has not as of a given date. There has to be a judicial due process established to deal with this huge problem. That means courts and lawyers, and there is no walking away from that and there will be tons of that. Are we as a people who believe due process is necessary in our free country prepared to pay for this huge expense? And what do we do about Mexico as the 4.4 million are sent back there. Do we speak like Marie Antoinette, or do we provide aid to help Mexico solve the vast new problem?

Iran and the Bomb

As soon as we got the Atomic Bomb we dropped it on Hiroshima. Four days later we dropped a second one on Nagasaki. We had a third one ready to go, but the Jap’s surrendered before we could drop that one. Then the Russians got one, and along tagged the British and the French. Some how the Russian’s and we managed not to blow up the world over the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) became a fact. Then China, India, Pakistani, and Israel joined the club. South Africa joined, but folded early. North Korea recently crashed the party. Now Iran wants in. Why – so they can tell the USA to back off, and back it up. I suppose Iran has problems with the other members of the Bomb club, but it is the USA that has them up tight. Does anyone think that President G. Bush would have invaded Iraq if Iraq had the Bomb? Like, is the Pope catholic? Does a bear shit in the woods? Some things in life are so obvious, only the clinically insane can avoid them. G. Bush says Iran cannot be permitted to get the Bomb and he has the means to blow up most of Iran to destroy their nuclear capabilities. Would he use nuclear weapons to do this? Of course he would, that is our way of war, and the potential targets in Iran are made to measure for nuclear weapons.
Everything said above is a given. So only one question remains. What will Iran do if they get the Bomb? Each answer demands a why and the accompanying consequences. When we first got the Bomb we justified its use by saying it would force the Jap’s to surrender immediately and therefore save a million American casualties to invade the Japanese home islands. Consequences, there were none. After the other nations got the Bomb, the consequences always outweighed the rational for use for both them, and us, i.e., the other side will bomb back (MAD). So, Iran’s first option has to be, “Hey guys, we got the Bomb too, so don’t mess with us. Yeah, we dig MAD, we’ll blow off a little steam, but settle down and be good nuclear club mates.” That is what history, not ancient history, but the history most of us have lived through teaches and common sense validates. On to other realities. Iran gets the Bomb and gives it to al Qaeda who promptly set it up on Manhattan Island or Washington, D. C. and pulls the pin. What ever is left of our leadership talks around to the other members of the Club; it s unanimous – Iran. Fifteen minutes later, we return Iran to the Stone Age and whatever other country we think al Qaeda is holed up in. Variation on this is Iran drops it directly on USA. No middleman needed. Same consequences, except we don’t have to obliterate the country where al Qaeda is holed up. This is Iranian national suicide option No. 1. And then what happens – nobody knows. If you believe in this scenario, then by all means start bombing Iran now. Moving on: Iran gets the Bomb and destroys Israel. Israel complies with the dictates of MAD and now both Iran and Israel (and probably most of Palestine) reenter the Stone Age. This is Iranian national suicide option No. 2. And then what happens – nobody knows. If you are Israeli and believe in this scenario, then by all means start bombing Iran now. If you are USA and believe in this scenario, then you have a number of very serious problems to deal with.
Back in the time of Harry Truman when the Zionist cause succeeded and the State Of Israel became a reality, the USA took on the role of guarantying the ultimate security of Israel. This pledge has never been put to the test because Israel has won all its wars with the surrounding Arab States. Oh, we have given them tons of aid, but they did their own fighting. Nevertheless, had we been required to intervene, our own basic security would never have been threatened.
Our pledge was on the margin of our surplus, never our need. Once Israel joined the Bomb club, like it or not, they became members of the MAD clique. As long as there was little possibility that Israel could become involved in a dispute with another member of the MAD clique, the USA has shown little or no concern with their pledge to Israel. Now Iran appears to be hell bent on joining the Bomb club and may be setting itself on what I just called, Iranian national suicide option No. 2. I maintain no MAD state has the right to guaranty the security of another MAD state that is in a dispute with another MAD state. No state has the right to take the risk of suicide on the behalf of another state that has decided to engage in MAD.
If the President believes Iran’s goal in joining the Bomb Club is to drop it on the USA or give it to al Qaeda to plant here, then he has to convince the American people that, that is a reality if he wants to bomb out Iran’s nuclear capabilities. For him to bomb Iran without a clear declaration of war would make him a dictator. The USA military will carry out such orders. If the President believes Iran’s goal in joining the Bomb Club is to destroy Israel, then he should stay out of Israel’s way and leave them to their own devices. Once Israel joined the Bomb Club they took on MAD and no other state can stand in as surrogate for them and risk MAD themselves. I believe Israel will nuke Iran’s nuclear capabilities if they believe Iran will nuke them as soon as they get a few nuclear bombs. Only Israel knows what they really believe and only time will tell. If Iran keeps going for the Bomb, and Israel does not nuke them first, then you got to believe Israel and Iran have struck a bargain, yes a bargain that establishes Israel’s right to exist. Possible, the art of the possible, yes: probable, no.
In any event, the American public should think long and hard if they are willing to believe that 65 million Iranian’s are building a Bomb so they can drop it on USA and thus commit national suicide or to engage Israel with MAD and thus end the existence of both Israel and Iran.
The consequences of having the Bomb are to be subject to the fate of MAD. The consequences of not having the Bomb is being pushed around by those who have the Bomb, so you go get a Bomb and go MAD. So far so good, the Cuban Missile Chris was a long time ago, and most have kept their cool since then. But some day, unless mutual nuclear disarmament takes place, the world will go bang.

Hurricane Katrina destroyed a good part of New Orleans, and other parts of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. This storm partially ruined almost all aspects of most people’s lives along the Gulf coast. I say we the people of the United States should finance the complete rebuilding of all the damaged and destroyed property in these areas to include the rebuilding of sound flood control projects. Yes, a complete bail out. Am I out of mind, maybe, but consider the following. Many economists fairly estimate about one third of our foreign aid since WW II has gone to Israel. Conservative estimates of that aid since 1947 to Israel is 100 billion. The economist Thomas Stauffer claims it’s 1.6 trillion. I will stick with the 100 billion number for the purposes of my illustration. Using reasonable average
Numbers spread over 58 years: that computes to $461 per capita USA as a gift of $22,700 per capita Israeli. Israel is not a poor country, and it is quite capable of defending itself from its enemies. In New Orleans we have at least 250,000 people who lost everything to Katrina, and another 100,000 in the surrounding states. I propose we take the 2.63 billon the US plans to give to Israel in 2006 and give it to the 350,000 Americans who lost it all to Katrina. Call it their seed money to get started again. That’s $7510 per capita Katrina victim. In the meanwhile USA should put up 75 cents of a dollar grant with the remaining 25 cents as an interest free loan of 30 years to all those who lost their property and want to rebuild. Assume they all do, with four persons per new unit, giving 87,500 new units at $150,000 unit, we got13.125 billion. USA puts up 75% of that, 9.84 billion and the new owners get 30-year interest free loans of 3.38 billion. If we could give Israel 100 bullion over 58 years, we certainly can help our own people. That computes to $41.50 per capita USA to help 350,000 Katrina victims rebuild their lives. When you say “God bless America” or hear others say it, this is what it means.

Iran and the atomic bomb.
We invented the atomic bomb. As soon as we had it we dropped it on Hiroshima. A few days later we dropped another one on Nagasaki. Shortly after that the British and then the French sucked it out of us. Then Russian got their own. Some time later South Africa cranked out a few, but then thought twice about it and scraped their madness. China looked around and decided they needed one too, so they got a bunch. India and Pakistan shook in their sandals, looked at each other and shook some more, and developed their own. In the meanwhile, Israel with the memory of the Holocaust still fresh got some too. Needless to say the USA and Russia could have prevented India, Pakistan, and Israel from getting nuclear weapons. We probably helped Israel get its first atomic bomb. Now along comes the axis of evil. North Korea has some; Iraq fumbled around, but Israel blew up the reactor they were going to use to get their fissile material, and not withstanding the Bush administration lie told years later that Iraq had WMD (nuclear weapons), Iraq had no bomb; Iran is now going for the bomb. As soon as they get enough fissile material, they will have an atomic bomb. What then? Probably nothing. That is why they want one. If you got some, you may not qualify for the MAD club with the USA, Russia, and probably China; but having the ability to kill five million or so of your potential enemy is enough to keep him at bay. So who in the nuclear weapons club is so worried that they would be willing to go to all out war, including using nuclear weapons to prevent Iran from getting the nuclear bomb? Israel – because they think Iran would try to destroy them once Iran gets an operational nuclear capability. But Israel will do everything in its power to get the USA to take any and all actions against Iran to prevent them from getting the atomic bomb. If the USA refuses to do Israel’s bidding, then I believe they will attack Iran’s nuclear bomb building nuclear facilities with nuclear weapons. What would happen then, probably nothing? But what about unintended consequences? Your guess is good as anybody. Iran is hell bent on getting nuclear weapons. Israel is hell bent on preventing this. What to do? We cannot turn the clock back. The USA and Russia failed to act peacefully when China bulled their way into the MAD club. Now the handwriting was hanging from the Great China Wall. The three blind mice could not, would not, read it. What did it say – simple, the world cannot live with nuclear weapons proliferation. There is only one answer, the nuclear club members must rid themselves of all their nuclear weapons and enforce a worldwide ban on any and all future nuclear weapons. Pie in the sky, no, there is no pie in the sky, but nuclear weapons proliferation is providing the stuff to destroy enough of us, that if we had it to do over, we would have mutually accepted nuclear weapons disarmament.

Bin Laden’s latest TV broadcast has him suggesting that a truce might be possible between al-Qaida and the USA. President Bush rejects this totally with calls the terrorist murders will be brought to justice and we will never give up or ever negotiate with terrorists. I believe this is a mistake. I think we should sit down with al-Qaida and talk. Let’s find out what they want and what they are willing to negotiate. Let the American public hear it from Bin Laden himself. This is not one of those foolish, what would Jesus do suggestions. Real politics asks that one know his enemy. Certainly talking with your enemy will help to know that enemy. We have nothing to loose. I doubt we have anything to gain, except I think it prudent we open and keep open a channel of communication. If months or even years from now, you find yourself or one of yours being killed in another al-Qaida 9/11 type attack, you might be disappointed if our country failed to do everything possible to end this conflict.