Influenza Pandemic – Worldwide Problem

In the past few weeks I’ve done a lot of reading at the Internet sites of the World Health Organization (WHO), Health and Human Services (HHS), and the Center for Disease Control (CDC). Very, very little bullshit is on these sites when they are talking about the possibility of facing a worldwide influenza pandemic generated by Asian bird flu A (H5N1) if it mutates into a strain easily transferred from person to person. Can this happen – yes. Will it happen – there is a good probability. What is a good probability: the answer is that given a time span of 10-15 years, there will be a flu pandemic.
Why should a person be concerned? The models constructed from the flu pandemics of 1918, 1957, and 1968; and the vast database we have on influenza indicated that the death toll will be way beyond any thing any of us has ever experienced.
The standard defense against being infected with influenza is to get inoculated with the current seasonal flu vaccine. That will protect most people. If you get infected there is no cure. It runs its course in about a week and you get over it without ill effects. If you are young, have other illness, or old, it may kill you.
Right now there is no vaccine for A (H5N1). The experts say not to worry, because this strain does move from person to person. But it is deadly: out of 120 or so cases of people who became infected by handling infected birds, 60 of them died. A statistical drop in the bucket; but enough to scare the crap out of responsible public health officials. Furthermore, the pharmaceutical industry does not have the ability to produce enough vaccine to meet worldwide demand. In addition, the precise structure of the virus has to be known before the vaccine can be made, as the vaccine will only be effective against that specific virus.
If and when A (H5N1) mutates into a strain that passes easily from person to person, we have to develop the following: greatly increase our ability to produce huge amounts of vaccine, and produce this vaccine in a very short time span, and get people inoculated immediately.
In the meanwhile there are antiviral drug(s) that could and would be used to deal with a flu pandemic or seasonal influenza. I’m talking about Tamiflu and Relenza. The following is known about Tamiflu. Hoffmann – La Roche
owns the license and produces it outside the USA. HHS says it has about 5 million courses (10 75mg caps) in stockpile. Maker and public health officials say it would be effective in use against a person-to-person transferable strain of A (H5N1). First as a prophylactic if you start to take it before becoming infected. Second if you become infected, need to take it within one day of the infection. First and Second options are loaded with questions, but there are no answers yet. Big caution here, Tamiflu has never been tested on people with respect to A (H5N1). I don’t know about Relenza, but am trying to educate myself about this antiviral. To greatly increase the production of these antivirals is in the realm of politics as is the matter of a vaccine.
Suppose the flu pandemic arrives before we get loads more of a tested antiviral and or vaccine. We are now reduced to the simple, yet it will save many. Contain the spread of the infection. The basics here are quarantine, mandatory masks, hand washing and disinfecting, and rapid disposing of the dead. Each one of those elements will require public education, knowledgeable and honest local public health officials who can communicate, material wherewithal, and an understanding that failure to cooperate with these public health measures will bring death to those around you or maybe even yourself. For example, the mandatory masks require a certain material wherewithal. These masks are manufactured off shore. Considering the worldwide demand for them, should we set up factories in the USA to satisfy our needs? This is not trivia. It’s not the story of the ‘want of a nail’. If you or your loved one is in contact with an infected person and there is no mask, you or the loved one is now infected. Syringes are also manufactured off shore, but as we have no vaccine to put in them, we can deal with them later.
Let me leave you with a most depressing scenario. If you find it outrageous, do some research on the subject, you will find out it is authentic. City X, USA. A mutation of A (H5N1) has been identified and is spreading from person to person. It is extremely virulent. One out of four infected are dead within three days. The spreading is accelerating. No question, it is the feared pandemic. There is no vaccine. Tamiflu is only 25% effective of what it was predicted to be. Tamiflu supplies are almost exhausted. Complete quarantine is in effect and martial law has been declared. After two weeks half the health care work force are now infected. Thousands are attempt to breakout from the quarantine area as US Army and Marines seal off the area. I leave the rest to you.