A work in progress – from phone logs to Big Brother.

George Orwell’s Nineteen Eight-Four is alive and well. In fact it is the American government’s largest growth business. And you know, at least half of the American people support this totalitarian power grab. It is the dream come true of the master computer database that I’ll call Big Brother (BB). The technology of computer hardware and software is completely in hand and its cost is very reasonable. The various databases that need to be consolidated into BB are readily available. All that remains to be done is for these various databases to be
brought under some central control and then used. Right now the National Security Agency (NSA) seems to be the lead government agency in the George Bush administration to assembly the various databases under BB. Once that is done, and it is a work in progress, with the mere punch of a few computer keystrokes, we have every bit of information ever recorded in your lifetime on a computer monitor screen. Never mind the assurances your government gives you that, that information will never be misused, history teaches that, that is a lie. Surely BB will be used, and it will be used against you. As to misuse, such a notion has no meaning when the rules for use are set in secret and changed in secret. Unless the Congress and the Courts step in to limit the Executive under the Constitution, BB is already a reality.
Stop for a moment and think about the various databases out there with you in them: federal, state, and county tax records; driver, automobile, birth, death, marriage, divorce, court proceedings, prison, school, military service, banks, investment services, property, medical, guns, social security, medicare, medicaid, unemployment, welfare, credit, telephone, e-mail, passport, insurance, bankruptcy records, ad infinitum, etc.
And of course most think they are the proverbial honest man, and therefore have nothing to fear. The real honest man knows better. In those records mentioned above, there is enough rope to hang nine out of ten people living in America, honest or otherwise. As to the majority who seem to approve of President Bush’s NSA actions you got to conclude they are stupid, naive, mentally lazy, consumed with right wing religious notions that they are the elect; and believe George Bush is protecting them from terrorism, but in reality they are surrendering some of their liberty to Nineteen Eight-Four.

Pat's Reality

Ethanol

Rather than consider the USA, I’ll keep my numbers for CO only.

Gasoline Consumption: 5.7 million gallons per day (2002), in Co, ranked 26th in the nation. 2002 was the latest year I could find on the internet, so for 2006 I’ll estimate off the top of my head an increase of 10% and say we used 6.27 million gallons of gasoline per day for 2006 in CO.

The carmakers are now building and selling E85 cars and trucks. They cost about the same for a comparable gas only machine. The gas only vehicles get from 5% to 10% better gas mileage, but I’m told the E85 vehicles deliver slightly less power for a gallon of fuel at some standard conditions. So I’m going to say the gasoline only machine is 5% more efficient then the E85 machine on a per gallon burned basis.

So 5% more E85 will be needed per day or 6.5835 million gallons per day of E85 for 2006. E85 is 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. For CO, we’ll need 5.595975 million gallons per day of ethanol for 2006.

Now I’ll wave my magic wand and create that ethanol right here in CO and turn all automotive engines into E85 burning engines. I can hear you laughing, I can still hear those laughing before the no alcohol amendment (18th) to the Constitution was passed. But figures lie and liars figure.

One bushel corn will yield 2.8 gallon of ethanol. Consider a plant to produce 50 million gal of ethanol per year will need approximately 18 million bushels of corn. In 2004 USA corn crop average acre yield was 140 bushels or 128500 acres of corn to supply such a plant. That is 200.8 square miles, or 14.2 miles on each side.

Colorado seems to produce 150 million bushels of corn per year. I assume that corn is being used up in the current CO/USA market place. Right now an ethanol plant is being built in Weld County, CO to produce 140 million gal of ethanol from 50 million bushels of corn per year. Supposed to be online in 2007.

We need 5.595975 million gal of ethanol per day here in CO or 2042.530875 million gal per year or 14.6 of these 140 million gal ethanol-producing plants. We will have one such plant in 2007. That leaves 13.6 plants to yet build.

Well what about the corn to feed into these ethanol-producing plants? We got to import those 50 million bushels of corn or up our production 50 million bushels. If a 50 million gallon plant per year requires 200.8 square miles in corn, then we need 8203.1 square miles in corn to supply our 14.5 plants that each produces 140 million gal of ethanol per year. Start at Fort Morgan and draw line due east to the Nebraska line, then straight south to Hwy 40, then go west to Punkin Center on Hwy 94 and then north to Fort Morgan and you got 8203 square miles in corn. Yeah, 90 miles on each side. There is no bullshit in these numbers but others say they are wrong, terribly wrong. You can drink ethanol or smoke pot. But the numbers will change.

Now another gang of analysts steps forward and says – bullshit. You are way too optimistic on your claim gasoline is only 5% more efficient than ethanol. They say one gallon of ethanol equals 2/3 gallon of gasoline and it takes 1/2 gallon of gasoline to make one gallon of ethanol. The first part of that is for the engineers to argue while the second part concerns itself with producing the corn and running the ethanol plant (1 gallon of ethanol = 2/3 gallon of gasoline – ½ gallon gasoline). That says it takes 6 gallon of ethanol to equal one gallon of gasoline. Hoy Cow! If that claim is true, then to get the equivalent of 5.3295 million gallons per day of gasoline in ethanol at a ratio of 6 gallon of ethanol to equal one gallon of gasoline, we need 31.977 million gallons of ethanol per day. That calls for 83.4 of those 140 million gallon per year ethanol plants along with the 16740 square miles of CO planted in corn, that is a square 129.4 miles on a side or 16% of CO. Sorry, I know you want to have cow, but there is no room, all the farm land is in corn.

Internet numbers say a 40 million gallon of ethanol per year plant has a capital cost of $55 million. So my 83.4, 140 million gallon ethanol per year plants will cost $16 billion.

Cost of a gallon of ethanol on 4/25/2006 is $2.75 at pump. However there is $0.51 subsidy to the ethanol plant and $0.18 corn subsidy paid by US A for each gallon of ethanol, but its overtaxed on an energy basis of $0.13 per gallon. So the total coast is $3.31 for one gallon of ethanol, while the price for regular gasoline is $2.94. You can see we are almost at the break-even point with respect to sweet light crude prices versus ethanol for a limited volume.

How about a crop failure? No way, can’t happen here. No more grass (thank God) every lawn in CO is in corn and so are all golf courses.

Immigration Issue

Two parts to the problem:
1. The USA-Mexican Boarder.
2. What to do with the illegal immigrates already here.

Lets deal with the boarder: a no-brainer - simple, close the boarder. No entry unless you have a passport and a USA Visa. It can be done. It is legal and it is moral. Yes, it will cost money, and there will be consequences, both known and unintended. But it is well within the art of the possible and I think 75% of Americans would approve of doing that. No USA military, the mission belongs to the Immigration Service.

The illegal immigrates already here. Complex, lots of honest differences of opinion, will cost a lot of money to work out, will create a good size government bureau to carry out, will need extreme corporation between local law enforcement and the courts and this new federal bureau. No secret police, no Gestapo, no KGB or CIA. Everything gets done on the public record. Main points are:
1. If you are here five years or more you can stay and apply for citizenship, less than five years you are deported.
2. If you are born here you can stay and your parents can stay and apply for citizenship.
3. If you become a felon any time before you become a citizen, you will be deported.
4. It is not a felony to be an illegal immigrant and no citizen can be prosecuted for helping an illegal immigrant.
5. If you hire an illegal immigrant who is not in the citizenship program mention above, there will be stiff fines and jail sentences for repeat offenders.
I believe we can deal with the process of citizenship for those who have been here for five years or more and those born here and their parents. After all we have been in that business for over 200 years. The deport business is something we are going to have to learn about as we proceed to carry it out. There is something like 11 million illegal immigrants here. About 4.4 million have been here less than five years. That is a huge number of people to deport in a human way. It will not be pretty (Katrina should provide some insight). It will produce enough guilt that we may give up on it once it is started. There will be unintended consequences. Turkey has yet to own up to the Armenian genocide. No, I’m not saying any such thing as that will happen, but you can bet now many will say 50 years from now that the ‘Great Mexican Deport’ never happened.
Now we got to decide how we will go about determining who has been here five years or more and who has not as of a given date. There has to be a judicial due process established to deal with this huge problem. That means courts and lawyers, and there is no walking away from that and there will be tons of that. Are we as a people who believe due process is necessary in our free country prepared to pay for this huge expense? And what do we do about Mexico as the 4.4 million are sent back there. Do we speak like Marie Antoinette, or do we provide aid to help Mexico solve the vast new problem?