Iran and the Bomb
As soon as we got the Atomic Bomb we dropped it on Hiroshima. Four days later we dropped a second one on Nagasaki. We had a third one ready to go, but the Jap’s surrendered before we could drop that one. Then the Russians got one, and along tagged the British and the French. Some how the Russian’s and we managed not to blow up the world over the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) became a fact. Then China, India, Pakistani, and Israel joined the club. South Africa joined, but folded early. North Korea recently crashed the party. Now Iran wants in. Why – so they can tell the USA to back off, and back it up. I suppose Iran has problems with the other members of the Bomb club, but it is the USA that has them up tight. Does anyone think that President G. Bush would have invaded Iraq if Iraq had the Bomb? Like, is the Pope catholic? Does a bear shit in the woods? Some things in life are so obvious, only the clinically insane can avoid them. G. Bush says Iran cannot be permitted to get the Bomb and he has the means to blow up most of Iran to destroy their nuclear capabilities. Would he use nuclear weapons to do this? Of course he would, that is our way of war, and the potential targets in Iran are made to measure for nuclear weapons.
Everything said above is a given. So only one question remains. What will Iran do if they get the Bomb? Each answer demands a why and the accompanying consequences. When we first got the Bomb we justified its use by saying it would force the Jap’s to surrender immediately and therefore save a million American casualties to invade the Japanese home islands. Consequences, there were none. After the other nations got the Bomb, the consequences always outweighed the rational for use for both them, and us, i.e., the other side will bomb back (MAD). So, Iran’s first option has to be, “Hey guys, we got the Bomb too, so don’t mess with us. Yeah, we dig MAD, we’ll blow off a little steam, but settle down and be good nuclear club mates.” That is what history, not ancient history, but the history most of us have lived through teaches and common sense validates. On to other realities. Iran gets the Bomb and gives it to al Qaeda who promptly set it up on Manhattan Island or Washington, D. C. and pulls the pin. What ever is left of our leadership talks around to the other members of the Club; it s unanimous – Iran. Fifteen minutes later, we return Iran to the Stone Age and whatever other country we think al Qaeda is holed up in. Variation on this is Iran drops it directly on USA. No middleman needed. Same consequences, except we don’t have to obliterate the country where al Qaeda is holed up. This is Iranian national suicide option No. 1. And then what happens – nobody knows. If you believe in this scenario, then by all means start bombing Iran now. Moving on: Iran gets the Bomb and destroys Israel. Israel complies with the dictates of MAD and now both Iran and Israel (and probably most of Palestine) reenter the Stone Age. This is Iranian national suicide option No. 2. And then what happens – nobody knows. If you are Israeli and believe in this scenario, then by all means start bombing Iran now. If you are USA and believe in this scenario, then you have a number of very serious problems to deal with.
Back in the time of Harry Truman when the Zionist cause succeeded and the State Of Israel became a reality, the USA took on the role of guarantying the ultimate security of Israel. This pledge has never been put to the test because Israel has won all its wars with the surrounding Arab States. Oh, we have given them tons of aid, but they did their own fighting. Nevertheless, had we been required to intervene, our own basic security would never have been threatened.
Our pledge was on the margin of our surplus, never our need. Once Israel joined the Bomb club, like it or not, they became members of the MAD clique. As long as there was little possibility that Israel could become involved in a dispute with another member of the MAD clique, the USA has shown little or no concern with their pledge to Israel. Now Iran appears to be hell bent on joining the Bomb club and may be setting itself on what I just called, Iranian national suicide option No. 2. I maintain no MAD state has the right to guaranty the security of another MAD state that is in a dispute with another MAD state. No state has the right to take the risk of suicide on the behalf of another state that has decided to engage in MAD.
If the President believes Iran’s goal in joining the Bomb Club is to drop it on the USA or give it to al Qaeda to plant here, then he has to convince the American people that, that is a reality if he wants to bomb out Iran’s nuclear capabilities. For him to bomb Iran without a clear declaration of war would make him a dictator. The USA military will carry out such orders. If the President believes Iran’s goal in joining the Bomb Club is to destroy Israel, then he should stay out of Israel’s way and leave them to their own devices. Once Israel joined the Bomb Club they took on MAD and no other state can stand in as surrogate for them and risk MAD themselves. I believe Israel will nuke Iran’s nuclear capabilities if they believe Iran will nuke them as soon as they get a few nuclear bombs. Only Israel knows what they really believe and only time will tell. If Iran keeps going for the Bomb, and Israel does not nuke them first, then you got to believe Israel and Iran have struck a bargain, yes a bargain that establishes Israel’s right to exist. Possible, the art of the possible, yes: probable, no.
In any event, the American public should think long and hard if they are willing to believe that 65 million Iranian’s are building a Bomb so they can drop it on USA and thus commit national suicide or to engage Israel with MAD and thus end the existence of both Israel and Iran.
The consequences of having the Bomb are to be subject to the fate of MAD. The consequences of not having the Bomb is being pushed around by those who have the Bomb, so you go get a Bomb and go MAD. So far so good, the Cuban Missile Chris was a long time ago, and most have kept their cool since then. But some day, unless mutual nuclear disarmament takes place, the world will go bang.
As soon as we got the Atomic Bomb we dropped it on Hiroshima. Four days later we dropped a second one on Nagasaki. We had a third one ready to go, but the Jap’s surrendered before we could drop that one. Then the Russians got one, and along tagged the British and the French. Some how the Russian’s and we managed not to blow up the world over the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) became a fact. Then China, India, Pakistani, and Israel joined the club. South Africa joined, but folded early. North Korea recently crashed the party. Now Iran wants in. Why – so they can tell the USA to back off, and back it up. I suppose Iran has problems with the other members of the Bomb club, but it is the USA that has them up tight. Does anyone think that President G. Bush would have invaded Iraq if Iraq had the Bomb? Like, is the Pope catholic? Does a bear shit in the woods? Some things in life are so obvious, only the clinically insane can avoid them. G. Bush says Iran cannot be permitted to get the Bomb and he has the means to blow up most of Iran to destroy their nuclear capabilities. Would he use nuclear weapons to do this? Of course he would, that is our way of war, and the potential targets in Iran are made to measure for nuclear weapons.
Everything said above is a given. So only one question remains. What will Iran do if they get the Bomb? Each answer demands a why and the accompanying consequences. When we first got the Bomb we justified its use by saying it would force the Jap’s to surrender immediately and therefore save a million American casualties to invade the Japanese home islands. Consequences, there were none. After the other nations got the Bomb, the consequences always outweighed the rational for use for both them, and us, i.e., the other side will bomb back (MAD). So, Iran’s first option has to be, “Hey guys, we got the Bomb too, so don’t mess with us. Yeah, we dig MAD, we’ll blow off a little steam, but settle down and be good nuclear club mates.” That is what history, not ancient history, but the history most of us have lived through teaches and common sense validates. On to other realities. Iran gets the Bomb and gives it to al Qaeda who promptly set it up on Manhattan Island or Washington, D. C. and pulls the pin. What ever is left of our leadership talks around to the other members of the Club; it s unanimous – Iran. Fifteen minutes later, we return Iran to the Stone Age and whatever other country we think al Qaeda is holed up in. Variation on this is Iran drops it directly on USA. No middleman needed. Same consequences, except we don’t have to obliterate the country where al Qaeda is holed up. This is Iranian national suicide option No. 1. And then what happens – nobody knows. If you believe in this scenario, then by all means start bombing Iran now. Moving on: Iran gets the Bomb and destroys Israel. Israel complies with the dictates of MAD and now both Iran and Israel (and probably most of Palestine) reenter the Stone Age. This is Iranian national suicide option No. 2. And then what happens – nobody knows. If you are Israeli and believe in this scenario, then by all means start bombing Iran now. If you are USA and believe in this scenario, then you have a number of very serious problems to deal with.
Back in the time of Harry Truman when the Zionist cause succeeded and the State Of Israel became a reality, the USA took on the role of guarantying the ultimate security of Israel. This pledge has never been put to the test because Israel has won all its wars with the surrounding Arab States. Oh, we have given them tons of aid, but they did their own fighting. Nevertheless, had we been required to intervene, our own basic security would never have been threatened.
Our pledge was on the margin of our surplus, never our need. Once Israel joined the Bomb club, like it or not, they became members of the MAD clique. As long as there was little possibility that Israel could become involved in a dispute with another member of the MAD clique, the USA has shown little or no concern with their pledge to Israel. Now Iran appears to be hell bent on joining the Bomb club and may be setting itself on what I just called, Iranian national suicide option No. 2. I maintain no MAD state has the right to guaranty the security of another MAD state that is in a dispute with another MAD state. No state has the right to take the risk of suicide on the behalf of another state that has decided to engage in MAD.
If the President believes Iran’s goal in joining the Bomb Club is to drop it on the USA or give it to al Qaeda to plant here, then he has to convince the American people that, that is a reality if he wants to bomb out Iran’s nuclear capabilities. For him to bomb Iran without a clear declaration of war would make him a dictator. The USA military will carry out such orders. If the President believes Iran’s goal in joining the Bomb Club is to destroy Israel, then he should stay out of Israel’s way and leave them to their own devices. Once Israel joined the Bomb Club they took on MAD and no other state can stand in as surrogate for them and risk MAD themselves. I believe Israel will nuke Iran’s nuclear capabilities if they believe Iran will nuke them as soon as they get a few nuclear bombs. Only Israel knows what they really believe and only time will tell. If Iran keeps going for the Bomb, and Israel does not nuke them first, then you got to believe Israel and Iran have struck a bargain, yes a bargain that establishes Israel’s right to exist. Possible, the art of the possible, yes: probable, no.
In any event, the American public should think long and hard if they are willing to believe that 65 million Iranian’s are building a Bomb so they can drop it on USA and thus commit national suicide or to engage Israel with MAD and thus end the existence of both Israel and Iran.
The consequences of having the Bomb are to be subject to the fate of MAD. The consequences of not having the Bomb is being pushed around by those who have the Bomb, so you go get a Bomb and go MAD. So far so good, the Cuban Missile Chris was a long time ago, and most have kept their cool since then. But some day, unless mutual nuclear disarmament takes place, the world will go bang.
posted by Pat Crotty at 10:48 AM
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